Robinhood, Sweeney Fuel Prediction Markets Fight

Prediction markets get a celebrity boost from Sweeney and James

Prediction markets are rarely quiet, but last week they got a massive jolt from two headline-grabbing names: Sydney Sweeney and LeBron James. Their new ad campaigns did more than generate clicks. They pushed the entire sector deeper into the public conversation about where sports event contracts are headed and who will control that growth.

For poker and betting audiences, this matters because prediction markets are no longer a fringe experiment. They are increasingly competing with traditional poker rooms, sportsbooks, and mainstream sports media for the same attention span. When celebrities of this caliber step in, it usually means the industry believes a major growth window is opening.

Novig and Polymarket chase the NFL season

Sweeney appeared in an ad for Novig, a sports-only prediction market that started life as an exchange-betting product, later explored sweepstakes, and ultimately settled into its current prediction market format. Reports say she received equity in exchange for the spot, and the ad is nearing 100,000 likes on X.

The response was not all positive. The campaign drew backlash, including criticism from female athletes in an Associated Press story. That reaction highlights a broader truth about gambling-adjacent marketing: once a celebrity attaches their name to a wagering product, the discussion quickly shifts from branding to ethics, perception and public pressure.

James, meanwhile, reportedly signed on with Polymarket. He appeared alongside Derek Jeter, Craig Robinson and other celebrities in a campaign that has received heavy exposure, including on the official MLB streaming app.

That is a notable shift for James, who previously partnered with DraftKings. Moving from a traditional sportsbook brand to the prediction-market side of the betting economy suggests the category is gaining enough traction to attract elite talent that once would have been reserved for the established operators.

Why NFL betting volume is driving the surge

The timing is no accident. NFL season is the engine behind the current push, and prediction markets know it. Sports contracts are still by far the dominant product category, making up an estimated 80% of trading volume.

Kalshi’s most-traded U.S.-facing game last weekend was Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants on Sunday Night Football. That matchup generated more than $112 million in trading volume. According to TickerTracker, it surpassed every regular-season game in 2025, which is a strong sign of how quickly the market has expanded.

Parlays are also becoming a major growth driver. Last year, prediction markets were only beginning to offer parlay products as NFL season started. This year, TickerTracker reported that parlays accounted for about 60% of trading and more than $5.6 billion in volume.

That kind of growth tells us the category is maturing fast. The product mix is moving closer to the familiar sportsbook model, but with a trading-first wrapper that appeals to users who like faster markets, sharper pricing and a more exchange-like feel.

For players comparing the broader ecosystem, it is worth watching how promotions & bonuses are used in traditional gambling. The competition for early user acquisition is only getting sharper.

Robinhood, Vlad Tenev and the regulatory fight

Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev added fuel to the debate by arguing that states suing prediction markets are mainly trying to protect tax revenue.

That is not a surprising claim. In industry terms, it is part of the battle over channelization: the push to route bettors into legal, taxed, regulated platforms instead of offshore or unauthorized alternatives. States absolutely have a financial incentive to keep wagering activity inside their own regulated systems.

Still, the way prediction markets frame the opposition can be misleading. Tenev referred to the competing regulated gambling industry as “state-owned operators,” but that is mostly inaccurate. The major sportsbook and casino operators are generally publicly traded companies, not state-owned businesses. There are some special cases, such as Oregon’s arrangement where DraftKings is the only licensed operator, but those are exceptions rather than the rule.

Kalshi is making a similar argument with its “free markets over monopolies” messaging. The problem is that calling casinos monopolies is also a stretch. Caesars, Wynn, MGM and others may oppose prediction markets, but they are still competing aggressively with one another.

Robinhood itself initially joined Crypto.com in asking the Supreme Court to review a major anti-prediction-market ruling after the Ninth Circuit granted Nevada an injunction against Kalshi’s sports contracts. But the company later shifted gears and asked SCOTUS to wait until the Commodity Futures Trading Commission provides more clarity on sports contracts.

For now, states are using the Ninth Circuit ruling as a tool to push their own bans or restrictions. Most industry watchers still think a Supreme Court showdown is inevitable.

Expert analysis: what this means for players and operators

This story is about more than celebrity advertising. It shows that prediction markets are entering a phase where product growth, legal risk and brand strategy are all colliding at once.

For players, there are several takeaways:

• Liquidity is growing fast. Bigger brands bring bigger user bases, which usually means better prices and more active markets.
• NFL will remain the main battleground. The biggest opportunities are likely to cluster around marquee games, prime-time windows and parlay-heavy slates.
• Regulatory uncertainty remains a real factor. A platform can grow quickly, but one court ruling can change access overnight.
• The line between sportsbook and prediction market is blurring. Users will need to pay closer attention to rules, settlement mechanics and fees.

For operators, the message is equally clear. The fight is no longer just about taking bets. It is about controlling distribution, protecting tax bases and owning the customer relationship. That is why the debate is spilling into every corner of the industry, from poker clubs to broader gaming ecosystems where trust and convenience matter just as much as odds.

A Supreme Court case appears increasingly likely, but until then the market will continue to move in bursts: new celebrity campaigns, fresh legal challenges and more attempts to shape how sports event contracts are offered in the U.S.

Bottom line: prediction markets are now a major betting story

Robinhood, Sydney Sweeney and LeBron James have turned a niche financial-gambling debate into a mainstream sports-betting headline.

The combination of NFL-driven volume, celebrity marketing and regulatory conflict shows that prediction markets are no longer a side story. They are becoming a central battleground in the modern gambling economy, and that makes them worth watching closely over the next few months.

FAQ