Ray Kondler Warns of 10% Gross Gambling Tax Shock

Why Ray Kondler’s warning matters for poker

Ray Kondler, CPA, is sounding the alarm on a 2026 10% gross gambling tax provision that could hit players and operators with a major reality check. On paper, it may look like just another regulatory line item. In practice, it could change how poker is priced, played, and taxed across an entire market.

For poker players, the warning matters because the game is already built on thin edges, variance, rake, and long-term volume. Even a tax rule that seems small at first glance can have a meaningful impact on net profitability, especially for grinders who rely on steady returns rather than one-time scores.

What a gross gambling tax means in poker

A gross gambling tax is different from a tax on net winnings. Instead of being tied to what remains after expenses and losses, it can be applied to a broader revenue base. That makes it far more aggressive from a player’s perspective.

• results swing naturally from session to session;
• rake and fees already reduce margins;
• travel, staking, and tournament buy-ins add more cost;
• professionals depend on long-term profitability, not short-term spikes.

That’s why a 10% gross-based rule is more than a technical policy change. It can directly affect bankroll planning, game selection, and the viability of lower-margin formats.

Why 2026 could be a turning point for regulars

Tax changes often arrive quietly, but their effects show up fast in poker. Players may first notice smaller cash-outs, tighter margins, or the need to play fewer marginal spots. Over time, the real impact becomes clear: the same win rate no longer produces the same take-home result.

• which stakes are worth playing;
• whether tournament schedules still make sense;
• how much buffer they need in their bankroll;
• how carefully they track results for tax reporting.

For the wider industry, the concern is competitive. If one jurisdiction becomes more expensive, both players and operators may shift activity toward friendlier markets with lower friction and clearer tax treatment.

Industry impact beyond the felt

This kind of tax rule does not only affect the people seated at the table. It can influence online poker rooms, live event operators, series organizers, affiliates, and even coaching ecosystems that depend on healthy poker traffic.

• reduced appeal of low- and mid-margin games;
• pressure on bonuses and rakeback structures;
• more selective tournament and cash-game participation;
• less incentive for some players to grind at smaller stakes.

Poker is a game of expected value, but it is also a game of real-world costs. Once taxes change the economic equation, strategy changes with them.

Bottom line: players need to think beyond EV

Ray Kondler’s warning is a reminder that poker success is not only about making the right decisions on the flop, turn, and river. It is also about understanding the financial structure around the game. A 10% gross gambling tax rule in 2026 could become a serious drag on profitability if players are not prepared.

The smart move now is to follow the details closely, understand how the tax would be calculated, and assess the impact on bankroll, volume, and format selection. In poker, the edge belongs to the player who sees the hidden costs before they hit the bottom line.

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